Tuesday, June 26, 2007

Top 10 Pitchers of All-Time

Pitching greatness sometimes comes like a comet. It quickly streaks by, leaving everyone to wonder what they just saw. Other times, it's a slow and steady march, a melding of determination, guile and talent. In all cases though, great pitching is the most amazing display you can watch on a baseball field. The pitcher controls the pace of the game. He determines how play will unfold and as you watch, you understand greatness. A no-hitter, or the rare perfect game makes one appreciate just how difficult and special pitching is. Here is my list of the Top 10 greatest pitchers of all-time.

#1 Pedro Martinez - There are other pitchers on this list who have had longer careers. There are other pitchers who have had great seasons. In the end though, there is no pitcher that has been as great as Pedro. Out of the seasons I looked at, his 1999 masterpiece of a season (23 wins, 4 losses, 2.07 ERA, Cy Young and finishing second in the MVP voting) was the fourth best overall. He has the fourth best career winning percentage and is first in ERA+, a statistic that is able to carry throughout the course of time. When you watch Pedro pitch, even today as a crafty veteran after multiple shoulder injuries, you are watching greatness.

#2 Walter Johnson - Johnson pitched 21 seasons, with his prime lasting almost 13 years during the end of the dead ball era. His 1913 season, when he finished with 36 wins, 7 losses, a 1.14 ERA - incredibly low even for that era - and won the MVP, was as impressive a season as any pitcher has recorded all-time. The only factor that prevents Johnson from being rated on this list as the greatest of all-time is his measly .599 career winning percentage.

#3 Roger Clemens - One of the strangest pitching careers in history belongs to a pitcher who now only deems it necessary to pitch three quarters of a season. Clemens had two primes, a younger prime when he burst onto the scene from 1986 to 1992 and a second "wiser" prime from 1997 to 2001. In between he's had a myriad of results in his 24 Major League seasons, the most of any pitcher on this list. His 1986 season is one only a few modern pitchers have been able to duplicate, none have won an MVP since.

#4 Lefty Grove
#5 Randy Johnson
#6 Greg Maddux
#7 Johan Santana - It is necessary to explain Santana's lofty position in this ranking as he has only pitched eight major league seasons. The reason he is given such a high rating is that those eight seasons have been eight of the best seasons any pitcher in history has put together. The last six seasons especially are very impressive. Santana is also the active and career leader in win percentage and has an ERA+ of 144. If he continues to pitch at a level any where near his current pace he will rise up this list, not fall.
#8 Christy Matthewson
#9 Cy Young
#10 Tom Seaver - Looking at Seaver the one thing that amazed me was his incredible prime. Seaver might not have the best pitcher of all-time (there are nine ahead of him), but he was able to sustain his greatness longer than any other pitcher in this study. His reign from 1967 to 1979, punctuated by his 1969 season, was an impressive display on longevity.

Others considered: Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Whitey Ford

One player I looked at and immediately discredited was Nolan Ryan. Yes, he did have a long career. Yes, he did strikeout a lot of hitters. And yes, he had the chance to throw a no-hitter on every start, if his stuff was on. The fact is, his stuff was not on that often. He has an ERA+ of 112 and a career winning percentage that is laughable when compared to the other players on this list. He never won a Cy Young award and I could not find a single season which he sustained that greatness for an entire year. Could he be great? Yes. Was he on of the greatest of all-time? No.

It's a shame that Koufax was forced to retire at the height of his pitching greatness. His injury following the 1966 season robbed the world of one of the greatest pitchers to ever play the game. His career numbers do not stack up with his contemporaries or the pitchers on this list however because he was only able to put together seven effective seasons which were preceded by five awfully mediocre ones. Some people call Pedro the "Modern Koufax" because of his injury history, but Pedro has at least sustained a 15 year career and was great from the beginning.

Of course, lists like this are meant to spur debates. Is there anyone I have left off that someone feels is deserving? I felt the best season I analyzed in the entire sample was Bob Gibson's 1968. No matter what era, a 1.12 ERA and a 22 and 9 record is an improbable result. I would love to hear your opinions in the comments.

6 comments:

Karpo said...

two primes you say? hmmm a second prime starting in 1997, during the Heyday of the steroids Era?

CHEATER!! CHEATER!! CHEATER!!!

jess said...

I think it's unwise to compare pitchers from different eras, because there are so many variables that don't translate. Can you compare guys who pitched 9 innings regularly to guys who get relief as a matter of course? Do you compare their ability vs. hitters now, with their conditioning and superior skills, to guys who were considered just above criminals then?

I've always had a soft spot for Walter Johnson, so I'd give him top billing.

No Satchel Paige?? Hard to assess him, though.

GKN said...

One thing I notice is that the top five pitchers on your list are fireballers who in their prime could consistently blaze fastballs by hitters. You have to go all the way down to Maddux to find a finesse pitcher on this list.

While I personally think Maddux is the best pitcher of this generation generation (his 1992-1998 stretch being the best any pitcher had since Koufax), it seems that natural strength and power is what turns a good pitcher into a great pitcher. Most hitters just can't touch an incredible fastball.

Arjewtino said...

How you don't have Sandy Koufax at Number One, let alone in the Top 10, is beyond me. Figures, coming from someone rooting for the D'backs.

btw, did you watch last night's game?

John said...

karpo - I was not going to say it. I am still not saying it, but it seems possible.

jess - I got this argument from a couple of people. I will say that I did try to use statistics (ERA+ and Win Percentage) that might be able to cross eras. It's very difficult to compare across eras, but I don't think it should stop people for trying. Satchel Paige is a great call, I wish I had more information about his career.

gkn - I checked over to your blog, it looks interesting! Having that big fireball to get you out of tight spots is always helpful. Although, every pitcher on the list had command of some other equally devastating pitches as well.

arjewtino - I did not see last night's game. Tonight's between D. Lowe and B. Webb for first place could be great though! I wish Koufax had a longer career. If there was any pitcher on this list that I was not alive to watch that I would want to see it would be him.

inowpronounceyou said...

You CONSIDERED Gibson and Koufax, yet you have Pedro at #1? #1?! No no no a thousand times, no.